In which direction will the relations between India and its neighbors move forward?
During the session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, the Chief Advisor to the Government of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, met with US President Joe Biden.
A press note published by Joe Biden’s office highlighted the warmth of the relationship between the two leaders. The United States has said that Bangladesh “needs to make more efforts” to rebuild.
But the warmth seen between Yunus and Joe Biden in New York could be a cause for concern for the Narendra Modi government.
Modi government is trying to establish relations with the new government of Bangladesh in the changed situation.
Bangladesh is one of India’s neighboring countries, which has had a recent change of government. As a result, India’s relations with those countries have become somewhat unstable.
Last week, Sri Lanka’s leftist Anura Dissanayake was elected president. Nepal and the Maldives have transitions in 2023 and Myanmar and Afghanistan in 2021.
On the other hand, India’s relations with China and Pakistan continue to strain.
After Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, his government introduced the ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy to improve India’s relations with neighboring countries.
Many feel that it is time to judge how effective that policy is after the change of government in neighboring countries.
Strained relations with neighbors
In recent times, India has been involved in conflicts with several of its neighboring countries.
Let’s take a look at how India’s neighboring conflicts are going.
First the Maldives.
The election slogan of the new president of that country, Muhammad Muijju, was ‘India out’.
After coming to power, he broke a tradition that had been going on for decades. It was customary for every president to visit India after coming to power in the Maldives.
But Muizzu chose Turkey for the first visit. On his return from a visit to China earlier this year, he requested India to withdraw Indian troops from the Maldives.
India accepted the request and withdrew its troops. However, July saw a slight change in Muijju’s attitude.
He called India his country’s “closest ally” and sought financial assistance.
Now let’s talk about Nepal.
After coming to power in Nepal in 2020, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli said that India was interfering in Nepal’s internal affairs.
However, in 2024, Oli was again elected as the Prime Minister of Nepal and now the relations between the two countries are gradually normalizing.
Oli and Narendra Modi held a bilateral meeting during the UN General Assembly last week. Both countries described the meeting as positive.
Prime Minister Modi said that the relationship between India and Nepal is very strong and they are moving towards making this relationship more dynamic.
In the context of Afghanistan, India has not yet recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of that country. However, India is also in the list of 15 countries that have diplomatic presence in Afghanistan.
Finally, Bangladesh.
After Muhammad Yunus came to power, India was somewhat on the backfoot. India had good relations with Sheikh Hasina’s government.
But when the anti-Hasina protests started in Bangladesh, the people there began to look at India with suspicion.
Both Prime Minister Modi and Yunus have expressed their willingness to work together, but the direction is yet to be decided.
How effective is the ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy?
Many experts feel that India has not prioritized relations with its neighbors in its efforts to improve relations with major countries like the US and Russia.
Suhasini Haider, senior journalist and diplomatic editor of The Hindu, said that relations with its neighbors have never been easy for India. For the past 10 years, the government has talked about Neighborhood First, but has not acted on it. Not much attention has been paid to this matter. So India should not expect these countries to feel good about India.
Suhasini Haider says that it is wrong to think that the governments of neighboring countries will always agree with India’s foreign policy. India cannot impose its foreign policy on its neighbours. The government is getting this lesson from the constant change of pot in the neighboring countries.
However, India’s former high commissioner to Bangladesh, Veena Sikri, feels that India’s ‘neighbourhood first’ policy is dynamic enough.
According to him, this policy is very flexible. We (India) can adapt to any situation. The best example of this is how India countered Muizzur’s ‘India Out’ policy in the Maldives. Gradually the matter settled down.
‘When Sri Lanka was facing a massive economic crisis, India provided financial assistance to Sri Lanka. In the case of Bangladesh too, India has said that it wants to work hand in hand with the interim government, Sikri said.
In his words, “This shows that the Neighborhood First policy is improving and now it has become quite strong.” This policy has been tested over the last few years and now the policy has passed that test.’
Domestic politics and democracy
Experts also say that India’s relations with neighboring countries are affected by various factors. These include internal changes and democratization of those countries.
Professor Swarn Singh of Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University says there is no doubt that the change of power in these countries has challenged India’s foreign policy.
“But we have to understand that those changes are not because of India. The change in neighboring countries is due to their domestic policies. America has only two major neighbors – Mexico and Canada. But apart from Pakistan, India is surrounded by several small countries. This has led to a situation of ‘small state syndrome’, says Swarn Singh.
According to him, in this situation the neighbors feel that India is showing them blood. The stronger the democracy in these small countries, the more it will become part of their identity to confront India. For example, Bhutan and India have always had excellent relations. But when the elections were held, anti-India slogans were raised.
Smaller countries like Nepal, Bangladesh and Maldives follow an ‘equal distance’ policy from China and India.
India cannot influence the internal changes of any of its neighbours, but in some cases like Bangladesh, India has shown a lack of foresight.
According to Suhasini Haider, the situation in Bangladesh is particularly serious because, despite India’s high commission and four embassies in the country, India has not been able to properly assess the situation there.
“In Bangladesh, India kept in touch with only one side and ignored the opposition in that country. Now India has to pay for this mistake, said Suhasini Haider.
He also says that in contrast, India has handled the political situation in Sri Lanka very well.
Prime Minister Modi had invited Anura Dissanayake to India before he became President.
But Indians also have projects in many neighboring countries, such as Adani’s project in Sri Lanka. India needs to understand that if it advocates for such projects, it will have its own consequences.”
Where will the relationship with the neighbors?
Experts say India needs to be very patient in its relations with neighboring countries.
Veena Sikri said, ‘I would say that India’s relations with neighboring countries are positive and our foreign policy is capable of handling any situation. Governments change all over the world, but our response will be such that the reputation of the country remains intact. Our foreign policy has to adapt to those changes.’
Suhasini Haider says that India should understand that its domestic policies can also affect relations with neighboring countries.
In his words, ‘India is seen as a leader of its neighbours. So India’s policies like CAA affect its neighbors too. When CAA was announced, there were protests in Bangladesh too. Although Sheikh Hasina’s government accepted the CAA, it has tarnished India’s image. Because the people of Bangladesh have opposed the CAA.
“It is not enough to keep in touch with the rulers, it is also necessary to win the hearts of the common people of these countries,” said Suhasini Haider.
According to Professor Swarn Singh, patience is the key.
In his words, ‘India has shown a lot of patience in the case of Oli in Nepal and Yunus in Bangladesh. India has shown restraint even in a turbulent situation. India knows that if relations with its neighbors go bad, it will suffer. Because in such a situation, China gets the opportunity to increase its influence.’
Source: BBC
