Bollywood, Blockades, and Backroom Deals in India’s Charm and Strong-Arm Strategy in South Asia
India, the gentle giant of South Asia, is an expert at wearing two hats at once. With one hand, it extends an olive branch, charming its neighbours with the latest Hindi music, Bollywood blockbusters and generous doses of cultural camaraderie, while with the other, it quietly sharpens a dagger of political manoeuvring and economic pressure. Nowhere is this dual strategy more apparent than in its dealings with Bangladesh, a country that India simultaneously woos and whips, all while trying to look like a benevolent master.
India’s ambitions do not just end with its backyard. India has much grander dreams—dreams that stretch far beyond the subcontinent and into the stormy waters of the Indo-Pacific. You see, India’s strategic flirtation with the United States is no secret. The two have been getting along famously lately, and it is not hard to see why. With China flexing its muscles in the region like a steroid-fuelled bodybuilder, the US is eager to find a capable gym friend in Asia to spot them. Enter India, with its ancient civilisation, rising economy, and ready-made rivalry with China. The match is almost too perfect, like peanut butter and jelly, or in India’s case, maybe roti and dal. Meanwhile, Pakistan, ever the regional strategist, is constantly scheming to turn the heat up on India by stirring up trouble from Bangladesh, using it as a pressure point in its never-ending quest to keep the tensions simmering for both political and geopolitical gain.
The US’s game plan is simple: contain China. And who better to help with this ‘’noble endeavour’’ than India? By empowering New Delhi, Washington ensures that China is not the only kid on the block tossing its weight around. And what does India get out of it? Just a little thing called “regional dominance.” With the US giving a hearty thumbs-up, India is now more emboldened than ever to make sure its smaller neighbours, especially Bangladesh, stay firmly within its sphere of influence. After all, why let Bangladesh flirt with China and Pakistan when India can promise cheap fast moving consumer products, rivers of Bollywood music, and maybe a touch of military protection, should things get unpredictable?
But this is where things start to get interesting. India’s hybrid strategy for keeping its neighbours, like Bangladesh, in check is as intricate as it is insidious. It is not just about guns and tanks—though those are certainly part of the package. No, India has perfected the art of the subtle squeeze. Diplomatic manoeuvring? Check. Economic dependency? Double check. Political influence? Absolutely. And let us not forget the soft power card, which India plays with the finesse of a skilled gambler. From infrastructure projects to educational exchanges, India extends its influence with all the charm of a seasoned salesperson selling you a car you do not really need.
Take, for instance, the eternal question of water. You would think managing rivers between neighbours would be straightforward, but when India’s involved, it is more of a high-stakes game. The Teesta River, shared between India and Bangladesh, is a perfect example. Bangladesh desperately needs the water for its agriculture, but India’s hand is on the tap, ready to control the flow whenever it suits its broader agenda. Want to play hardball on trade, Dhaka? Well, that river could run dry next season. It is diplomacy, but with a sly wink and a not-so-subtle threat.
And then there’s trade, another ace up India’s sleeve. Bangladesh might be growing rapidly, but India still dominates the economic relationship, exporting far more to its neighbour than it imports. India has positioned itself as an indispensable partner in Bangladesh’s economy, and with that comes leverage. Tariffs, trade routes, and even energy supplies can all be manipulated to keep Bangladesh in line, ensuring that any stray thoughts of turning to China and Pakistan are kept firmly in check.
The most entertaining part of all this must be India’s political meddling. For years, New Delhi has thrown its weight behind Sheikh Hasina, the Bangladeshi leader who was, at least until recently, a sure bet for keeping Bangladesh firmly in India’s corner. Hasina’s government played nice with India on issues like trade, security, and regional cooperation, ensuring that Bangladesh’s anti-Indian sentiment was kept at bay. But the entry of Nobel laureate Dr Yunus at the helm of Bangladesh changes Indian equation. After a popular uprising topples Hasina, Yunus suddenly finds himself in charge of Bangladesh, a man whose government leans towards the US but is not exactly India’s lapdog. What’s India to do?
Yunus, with his pro-US leanings and lack of entrenched party politics, poses a real challenge to India’s well-oiled hybrid strategy. He is the wild card in this game of regional dominance, and New Delhi knows it. Without a political party to manipulate or long-standing ties to exploit, India must now rethink its playbook. Diplomacy alone will not suffice; nor will a simple trade-off between aid and allegiance. Yunus’s rise means that India will have to engage Bangladesh more carefully, lest it push the country further into the arms of the US or, heaven forbid, China and Pakistan.
Of course, Dr Yunus’s presence as the head of the government is not exactly a political solution for Bangladesh either. A Nobel prize does not guarantee political savviness, and his government’s pro-US stance will not sit well with everyone. Bangladesh is still navigating its internal divisions, and with no solid political base, Yunus may find himself walking a tightrope between appeasing Washington, managing India, and keeping his own people onside. It is a delicate manoeuvre, one that could end with him falling into political obscurity if he is not careful.
Meanwhile, India’s hybrid strategy—this blend of cultural diplomacy, economic coercion, and political meddling—carries its own risks. It may work in the short term, but in the long run, this kind of manipulation tends to backfire. By propping up favourable leaders and undermining genuine democratic sentiment, India risks destabilising the very countries it seeks to control. Bangladesh, for all its political volatility, is a proud nation with a growing sense of sovereignty. Pushing too hard could lead to greater anti-Indian sentiment, fuelling unrest that could spill over into the broader region. And, let us be honest, South Asia does not exactly need more instability.
So, where does this all leave Bangladesh? Caught between the ambitions of India, the allure of China and Pakistan, and the strategic interests of the US, Bangladesh must tread carefully. For Dr Yunus, strengthening ties with the US could provide leverage against India’s influence, but he must also keep a wary eye on China and Pakistan. Too much coziness with either with the US or China could leave Bangladesh more vulnerable eventually.
India’s quest for regional dominance through its hybrid strategy is not exactly built for the long haul. As new leaders emerge, alliances shuffle, and the region transforms, India’s firm grip could start to loosen. The irony? South Asian nations may end up sliding back into the very instability that India worked so hard to prevent.
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Rajeev Ahmed
The Editor of Geopolits.com and the Author of the book titled Bengal Nexus
