A pre-election assessment and projection of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in India

April 13, 2024 12:17 am

A pre-election assessment and projection of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in India

Lok Sabha elections will start from April 19 in India, the world’s largest parliamentary democratic country. This election will continue till June 1 in a total of seven phases for more than two months.

At the moment, talking to ordinary people, former diplomats, professors, businessmen and politicians of various parties living in the capital of India, Delhi or several provinces and capitals around it, it seems that most of the people are very sure about who is coming to power in the state of India.

Then from the experience of observing and reporting elections in different countries, it is never right to make any final statement before the elections. Because, any natural calamity before the election or any decision of any group or any group can take the verdict of any election in a different direction.

For example, no one would say that the wind was strong in Barack Obama’s early election for a second term. Rather, the Republican candidate was running in sync with him. His dedication to work changed the situation after the hurricane in New York. Similarly, during the election of Trump and Hillary, the media created a kind of wave towards Hillary. On the other hand, the decisions of a class of social forums and business groups put Trump on top.

Even if the administration had not taken a different decision in the 1991 and 2001 elections of Bangladesh, the result could have been different. Besides, the election will be completed in seven phases over a period of more than two months. It is therefore not prudent to make any final pre-emptive, near-certainty comments about an election that could be any kind of scenario before any stage.

Moreover, in a country where there is an opportunity to vote fairly freely in the elections, why can’t a final decision be made seven days before the election, even on the day before the election?

However, what is seen around India’s elections at the moment, one of the largest provinces of the country and the province whose electoral results play a key role in forming the government in the center of India, is the electoral climate so far in Uttar Pradesh, in which the ruling BJP has the majority of seats. will get

BJP’s politics has been identified as anti-Muslim for various reasons at various times, but one thing is being noticed in the politics of Uttar Pradesh this time in the polls – which is the vote of the backward Muslim voters. Many believe that the BJP will get good votes in this state among those who are identified as western Muslims in India – those engaged in agriculture or various small professions. That class is opening up about it. If there are no major incidents before the elections in that province, it is likely to happen in the polls. That means, BJP can get a share of the backward Muslim votes there.

Madhya Pradesh is the second largest powerhouse of Delhi after Uttar Pradesh. It has the highest number of seats after Uttar Pradesh. According to common people and experts in Delhi, there is no doubt that the BJP will win more seats in Madhya Pradesh. But even after that, it is a big task for the ruling party to maintain the current atmosphere till the election day.

On the other hand, the main leader of the BJP and the most popular leader in India at the moment who has the power to pull more than 20% of the votes for his party, is the home state of this Indian leader and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Gujarat. Everyone is sure that nothing but a BJP victory will happen here.

Gujarat is followed by Maharashtra. Shiv Sena is a factor in Maharashtra. At one time they had an affinity with the BJP, but now they don’t. They formed the government in the middle with the support of the Congress and withdrew from the BJP. However, at the moment there is a conflict within the Shiv Sena and their leadership, as well as there is a wavering in the minds of the people of Maharashtra. Many professors and former diplomats say that they may lean towards the BJP in the Lok Sabha for the betterment and stability of the state. However, in any election, ideas and reality do not always flow in the same ditch – this should also be remembered.

According to some journalists in the Hindi belt in Delhi, the way the elections are progressing in Rajasthan at the moment, it is clear that the BJP will win most of the seats except for a few seats.

After North India, four states have the largest number of seats outside South India. Orissa, Bihar, West Bengal and Assam.

In Odisha, even though Navin Patnaik’s regional party is in power in the state, he has a very good relationship with the BJP. Moreover, I visited different parts of Orissa a few days ago – as they want Navin Patnaik’s government in the state, the majority of the people there are in favor of giving BJP the central government vote. The way they marked the arrival of Himanta Biswa Sharma, one of the young leaders of the BJP, by covering the entire city with his picture – it seemed like a big sign of reconciliation between the state government and the central government. The common people of that kingdom were also proud of his arrival and him. So Odisha may not go out of BJP. A number of think tanks in Delhi are of the same opinion. They feel there is no doubt that BJP will do well in Odisha.

Bihar’s Nitish left the India Alliance and allied with the BJP just a few weeks ago. People of Bihar consider Nitish as the embodiment of new Bihar. So there should be good results for BJP with Nitish’s wind there.

After Bihar comes West Bengal. The Sandeshkhali incident in West Bengal has put a lot of chalk on Mamata’s face. Even then, Mamata herself is popular there, not her party. BJP’s West Bengal leader is not as popular as Mamata. And in that sense, not a great leader like Mamata. Mamata Banerjee is the leader of Masa People of West Bengal. So the West Bengal BJP leader has to be selected based on Modi’s popularity and image. One of the plus points for Mamta in West Bengal is women’s vote. He has a strong position on this vote. However, the current suspicious incident has shaken this women’s vote to some extent. A few days ago the same incident happened in Basanti area there and Mamata Banerjee’s statement about the molestation of that woman was not only sad but also out of decency.

Moreover, a woman leader of her party gave an interview recently, where she said that after 12 midnight her party leaders called her and asked her to go to their hostel. One of the effects of this on women’s suffrage is natural.

On the other hand, those in West Bengal who are aware, especially about India’s security, are somewhat concerned about India’s security as opposed to China in the future. They do not consider Mamata safe in this regard. Besides, Mamata Banerjee is a leader of India Alliance but she is fighting alone in her state. Congress and Left Front are fighting separately there.

Many believe that the Muslim vote was a factor in the West Bengal polls. Their number is above 30%. Until the 1960s, a large portion of the votes of these Muslim devotees were reserved votes for the Congress.

Then, when the leftists were in power for a long time, gradually a large part of these votes became the reserve votes of the left fronts. In fact, in third world countries where the eyes of law and administration have not yet become machine-like, the minorities always turn to the rulers for their own interests. Mamata being in power for more than ten years, this minority vote from the Left Front is true, but the BJP’s continuous power at the center and the BJP’s position in favor of the western Muslims and the abolition of triple talaq have all combined to shake the votes of the Muslims in West Bengal, many believe. .

In West Bengal, there is a question about the extent to which the will of the people will be reflected in the polls, following the continuation of the reign of terror that started with the BJP’s election nominations, election management and above all preventing voting from the Left Front period.

Some think tanks think that BJP will do better in West Bengal this time than last time. Their number of seats will increase. However, there was no sign of him in the panchayat polls held a few days ago. So many people think that the seat of BJP may remain in West Bengal. However, both sides agree that BJP’s lead is more likely if people get a chance to vote.

On the other hand there is no industry in West Bengal. From there the industry is also moving to Jammu and Kashmir. People don’t have jobs. Capital Kolkata is a dead city. However, many feel that the BJP still has major deficiencies in organization and nominations. Moreover, old BJP workers in West Bengal feel deprived. With all this, some people think that even if Mamata’s party gets more out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, BJP can go beyond 18 to 22 seats. On the other hand, many people think that they can stay closer to 18. Others think that a miracle can happen in West Bengal; People can vote for Narendra Modi regardless of BJP’s nomination. But they also have the last word, if people get a chance to vote. Because common people do not have voting rights in West Bengal. The work of voting them is done by the government party workers.

Himanta Biswa Sharma is very dynamic leader in Assam. He brought people’s main focus on development in a province of various ethnic groups. And that development is not only infrastructure, but from human resource creation to security. Therefore, even if the Congress gets some seats in Assam, the BJP alliance will get more seats, journalists and common people there think. Just visited Assam a few days ago, a new realization of the people of Assam, they don’t want to go back to the past. They want to go ahead with modern India. Their airports are now filled with passengers to and from Delhi, Chennai and Hyderabad. As they have involved themselves in various jobs in Delhi, they are also involved in various jobs in Hyderabad and Chennai apart from IT.

Apart from Assam, six provinces in Northeast India have very few Lok Sabha seats. Everyone thinks that BJP will do worse in Manipur. Many believe that the Congress alliance will win in Meghalaya. Everyone is focusing on the possibility of BJP coming out in Mizoram and Nagaland. Moreover, the current situation in Myanmar is a major problem in this area. Besides, no one thinks that there will be any exception as it is in Tripura in North East India. BJP will win the Lok Sabha there.

Apart from this seven constituencies in Delhi, Punjab and Haryana are constituencies close to the capital and capital of India.

Arvind Kejriwal, who is in power in the state government in Delhi, is divided over the arrest of him before the elections in the city of Delhi. Many feel that, because of this, where the party has only one seat in the Lok Sabha from Punjab, it may increase to four or five from Delhi.

Others, however, have a different opinion about it. According to them, not even a leaf moved after Kejriwal’s arrest. There was no protest from Delhi to Punjab. So basically, the arrest of Kejriwal has left the Aam Aadmi Party leadership empty and they have no seats in Delhi – the same will happen this time. Rather, the voter turnout may decrease. Their statement is that Kejriwal is not only a mystery about Khalistani money, but there is enough proof of it. So a matter of treason can come here.

But according to many political analysts and think tanks in Delhi, Haryana, a small state between Delhi and Punjab, is very important. Whoever is in power in Delhi, if Haryana is on his side, he can control the border state of Punjab. According to many, it is still not clear which way Haryana will lean.

Apart from this, South India is a big factor in the election. India’s ruling BJP has yet to take root in South India the way it has in Northeast India outside the Hindi belt. But even then, many feel that the BJP may win a few seats in Karnataka. Because, apart from a class of Hindu votes in Karnataka, Christian votes may come to the BJP. Many Muslim votes may also go towards BJP. But they think that the Congress alliance will get the majority there in the end. The situation is exactly the same in Telangana, Andhra and its city Hyderabad. BJP is gaining foothold everywhere in South India but nothing much has happened yet to expect anything big in the elections. However, some feel that the BJP can strengthen its foothold in Tamil Nadu this time.

It is not that the remaining parties will be lost in the way of this advance of BJP. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has become one of the factors in Indian politics in the current world. He is not only the most popular in India at the moment, businessmen and many conscious groups of the country think that whatever path the country’s politics and China’s politics take after the next American elections, India needs a strong leader and for that, it needs to be won through public support and proper elections. Because, sometimes India may have to fight alone for its own interest and existence. That is why it is necessary to build a militarily and economically strong India in the future. And for that, a strong leader with integrity is needed in India.

For this reason, starting from the business community, the middle class and the upper class are considering Narendra Modi as their best choice at the moment. Because, Congress has brought restoration of Article 370 in Kashmir in their election manifesto. Congress may think this liberal policy. On the other hand, the new generation and educated voters may also think about how good the restoration of 370 in Kashmir will be for India in contrast to China, the world’s second power, in the current harsh and aggressive world of authoritarians. Because the question is as much about the Thakur of Kashmir as it is about the Muslims than it is about India’s security vis-a-vis China.

Again, Modi, who is often labeled as anti-Muslim, abolished triple talaq to end the uncertainty of married life for Muslim women in India. Many people think that many Muslim women will vote for BJP because of this. Congress has again announced to bring back triple talaq in their election manifesto. Congress talking about women’s empowerment and progress is not a step backwards?

Congress may say that in the era of super sonic jets, Ram Mandir is walking forward? Yet when elections come, many third world progressive parties make very backward decisions in order to get votes, to come to power. It works on their vote or election. With Congress going for this triple talaq, BJP’s Ram Mandir might as well.

In reality, practical voting politics and political science politics are not the same in the Third World. Then this election of 2024 in the world and in the midst of several major aggressions and war frenzies, this election of India is not only important for winning the elections – it is important for future world politics and for India to stand strong in any situation. Also important for regional stability.

Author: Swadesh Roy

Related Articles

Back to top button