By Rajeev Ahmed
Bangladesh, a country that has seen remarkable economic growth and social progress over the past decade, finds itself at a critical juncture. The regime change that leads to the toppling of Sheikh Hasina, the country’s long-standing prime minister, presents a myriad of challenges and opportunities. This potential shift in power can significantly alter the political landscape, influence economic trajectories, and reshape foreign relations.
Sheikh Hasina’s departure from power has triggered a period of political instability. Her tenure, marked by strong centralized control and the marginalization of opposition forces, has left a vacuum where a clear political successor is not immediately evident. Therefore, the political landscape of Bangladesh has become fragmented, with various factions within the Awami League, as well as parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Islamist groups like Jamat-e-Islam, vying for control.
This power struggle can lead to both peaceful negotiations and violent confrontations, depending on how different political and geopolitical actors’ maneuver. The role of the military in this transition is crucial. Historically, the Bangladeshi military has intervened during times of political crisis, and its stance can determine whether the country experiences a smooth political transition or spirals into chaos. The support of the military to a new apolitical government may help restore stability. However, if the military takes a more direct role in governance, it could lead to a temporary military-backed administration, raising concerns about the future of social justice in Bangladesh by pro-democratic local and international players.
To the western liberals, one of the most significant concerns in the wake of a regime change is the state of democracy in Bangladesh. According to them, there are two possible paths: a slide into greater authoritarianism or a renewal of democratic principles.
The risk of authoritarianism is real, especially if the interim leadership prioritizes consolidating power over democratic political change. This may involve curbing press freedoms, suppressing dissent, and manipulating the electoral process—practices that have already raised alarm during Sheikh Hasina’s rule. Such a scenario may lead to further erosion of the state’s institutions, making it difficult for Bangladesh to return to a fully functioning state providing social justice.
On the other hand, the end of Hasina’s rule presents an opportunity for political renewal. If political parties and civil society groups seize the moment, they can push for a broad-based coalition government committed to greater political freedom, transparency, and accountability. However, achieving this will require significant political will and compromise among Bangladesh’s traditionally polarized parties. The international community, including regional powers like India and global actors like the United States, may also play a crucial role in the process.
Political turmoil often has direct economic consequences, and Bangladesh is no exception. In the short term, the uncertainty surrounding a regime change can disrupt economic activities. Investor confidence may wane, affecting foreign direct investment and trade. Bangladesh’s ready-made garment industry, which is a cornerstone of the economy, can be particularly vulnerable to instability. Labor strikes or different levels of political unrest could disrupt production, leading to losses that would have a ripple effect on the broader economy.
However, the interim government can also prioritize economic reforms to address some of Bangladesh’s longstanding issues, such as corruption, infrastructure deficits, and income inequality. If handled effectively, these reforms can bolster long-term economic growth and improve Bangladesh’s position as a rising South Asian economy. For instance, investing in infrastructure can reduce the cost of doing business and attract more foreign investment, while anti-corruption measures could enhance governance and boost public trust in institutions.
The removal of Sheikh Hasina, known for her ‘secular stance’, may embolden Islamist groups that have been marginalized under her rule. If these groups gain political influence, there can be shifts in Bangladesh’s sociopolitical fabric, potentially leading to increased religious conservatism and social tensions. This can manifest in stricter laws influenced by religious ideologies or in greater societal pressure on minority groups, particularly Hindus and non-Sunni Muslims.
Furthermore, the interim period may witness social unrest, especially if there are sharp changes in governance or policies that affect the daily lives of citizens. Economic hardships, coupled with political uncertainty, can trigger protests or even violent clashes among different social and political groups. The new leadership will need to carefully tread these tensions to avoid deepening divisions within the country.
The change in the regime will also have significant implications for its foreign relations. Sheikh Hasina’s government maintained a delicate balance between India and China, but not with the West. The interim regime may recalibrate Bangladesh’s foreign policy, depending on its priorities and the internal pressures it faces.
India, a key ally of Sheikh Hasina, is closely monitoring the situation. The new regime may lead to cooler relations if the new leadership seeks to distance itself from India or pursue policies that New Delhi finds unfavorable. This could affect bilateral cooperation on critical issues like border security, water sharing, and trade. Conversely, Bangladesh might seek to strengthen ties with China, particularly if it needs economic support during a transitional period.
The impact on regional dynamics is profound. Bangladesh’s role within South Asia, especially in regional organizations like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), may shift depending on its foreign policy orientation. A more assertive or isolated Bangladesh can either disrupt or reshape regional cooperation efforts, influencing everything from trade to security policies across South Asia.
Human rights conditions in Bangladesh can either deteriorate or improve, depending on the approach taken by the new leadership. During this interim period, there may be a surge in human rights abuses, particularly if the new government resorts to heavy-handed tactics to establish control. This could include crackdowns on opposition parties, activists, and journalists—trends that have been observed during periods of political instability in the past.
Alternatively, a new government committed to reform can take steps to improve governance, reduce corruption, and strengthen institutions. This would require a concerted effort to rebuild trust in public institutions and address the systemic issues that have plagued Bangladesh for decades. International support, both in terms of financial aid and diplomatic pressure, could be crucial in ensuring that human rights and governance do not deteriorate during this critical period.
The future trajectory of Bangladesh will largely depend on how its new leadership navigates the complex challenges ahead—balancing the need for political stability with the demands for reforms, managing economic risks while pursuing growth, and redefining its place on the global stage. While the risks are significant, so too are the opportunities for Bangladesh to emerge stronger and more resilient in the face of change.
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Rajeev Ahmed
The Author of Bengal Nexus, and the Editor of geopolits.com
