BBC Bengal report: India’s three ‘options’ on former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina
Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been kept under strict security by the Indian government for the time being. However, the government has not yet officially announced anything about the final decision to be taken in this regard. In the meantime, since the Bangladesh government has revoked Sheikh Hasina’s ‘diplomatic’ passport, questions are also being raised about what is the legal basis for her position in India.
In this context, speaking to top level Indian officials and analysts in Delhi, BBC Bangla said in a report titled ‘Roads open to India now with Sheikh Hasina’, there are practically three ‘options’ or roads open to India with Sheikh Hasina at the moment. The first route is to arrange asylum for the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh in a third country, where he will be guaranteed a safe and secure environment.
The second option is to leave Sheikh Hasina in India with political asylum.
The third option may not be possible to implement now, but a section of officials and observers in India believe that after some time, India may try for Sheikh Hasina’s ‘political return’ to Bangladesh if the right situation arises. Because the Awami League as a party or political power is not finished yet and as the highest leader of the party, he can take the reins of the organization back home!
Among these three options, there is no doubt in diplomatic or think tank circles that the first one is the ‘best’ option for India. Because they feel that if he stays in India, it may have an adverse effect on Delhi-Dhaka relations in the future. Apart from this, if there is a request from Dhaka to hand over Sheikh Hasina under the India-Bangladesh extradition treaty, it is certain that Delhi will reject it on some grounds.
Therefore, observers do not think that handing over Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh for trial is a realistic ‘option’ for India. So, in other words, all three roads are open to India in the short or long term regarding Sheikh Hasina.
Sending a third friendly country: A top foreign ministry official said, ‘We are hoping for the best, preparing for the worst!’ If not possible, then Delhi will be prepared for the worst (Sheikh Hasina has to stay in India for a long time).
The BBC learned that after Sheikh Hasina’s proposal to visit the UK was initially blocked, India talked to the UAE (United Arab Emirates), Saudi Arabia and a couple of smaller European countries. However, there was no progress in these discussions. However, Sheikh Hasina herself has not yet made a ‘written application’ to any country. All negotiations are being conducted on his behalf and on the basis of his verbal consent by the Government of India. Now the question is, if a third country agrees to give shelter to Sheikh Hasina, then on which passport will she go there from Delhi?
Riva Ganguly Das, the former High Commissioner of India in Dhaka, said, “It is not a big problem. Even if Bangladesh cancels his passport, he can easily go to the third country with a travel document or permit issued by the Indian government.
Grant of political asylum: There is now an indication in Delhi that the government will not hesitate to grant political asylum to Sheikh Hasina in India if necessary. However, if this step is to be taken alone, then what will be its effect on India-Bangladesh bilateral relations, Delhi should also take care. Many analysts believe that if India gives shelter to Sheikh Hasina, it may become an obstacle in building relations with the new government of Bangladesh.
Shruti Patnaik, senior fellow at IDSA in Delhi, said, “If India gives shelter to Sheikh Hasina now, it will send a wrong message to Bangladesh and will surely fuel anti-India sentiments in that country.” The Indian government is also well aware of this problem. After that, if the first ‘option’ does not work, they have to resort to this second ‘option’. Because it is not possible for India not to stand by the danger of long-time friend Sheikh Hasina!
Aiding a ‘political comeback’: An influential section at the top policy-makers of the government in India still believes that Sheikh Hasina is ‘not gone forever’ from the political scene in Bangladesh and India should help her in her ‘political rehabilitation’ when the time and environment is right.
An Indian official told the BBC, “It should be remembered that Sheikh Hasina has made a terrible ‘comeback’ at least three times in the politics of Bangladesh – in ’81, ’96 and 2008! These three times, many thought that it might not be possible for him to turn around. But every time he proved them wrong!’
The real thing here is that Sheikh Hasina can return to Bangladesh one day and take the reins of Awami League again, a section in Delhi believes this very ‘seriously’. For this, they argue, India will have to put pressure on the interim government if necessary and on the army if necessary. They also say that Awami League is not a banned organization in Bangladesh. They have a strong network across the country, Sheikh Hasina as the supreme leader of that party may return to Bangladesh in the coming days.
He may also face trial in the cases filed against him, possibly barring him from contesting the next election. But many find it difficult to stop his return to the country and his re-entry into politics. But given the amount of ‘political investment’ India has made in Sheikh Hasina over the past fifty years, an influential section of Delhi is not willing to put her in the expense account now.
