Modi Will Be Back to Cherish India’s Regional Supremacy

May 27, 2024 2:17 am

Voters across India casted their ballots yesterday in the 6th phase of the ongoing Indian parliamentary elections. Votes in approximately 90% constituencies have been in the meantime casted by the Indian people while the 7th phase of the elections will be held on 1st June 2024 where votes in around 10% constituencies will be casted. The total number of seats in these elections consists of 543 constituencies. The official results of the Indian elections will be published on 4 June 2024 but news analysis and political scholars have asserted that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will win the polls with flying colours and thus will retain India’s regional supremacy.

The Indian elections are taking place at such a juncture while the global economy is facing a great deal of stress and uncertainty because of the Russia-Ukraine War, restless situation in the Middle East, the conflict between Israel and Gaza, the rise of Houthi rebels in Yemen who attack western ships in the Red Sea every now and then, supply chain disruption, mounting worldwide inflation, rising commodities’ prices, sovereignty etcetera. However, India, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been able to control price hikes remarkably in South Asia. Even Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are facing a much tougher price hike circumstances compared to India.

Narendra Modi’s government had to deal with some other challenges too during his tenure including unemployment and interference by China and disturbances by terrorist outfits based in Pakistan. On the other hand, the construction of the Ram Mandir has stimulated a political impact all over India which is highly expected to serve as an advantage for Narendra Modi in the elections on the basis of the watchword “Hindutva”.

There is no conclusive correlation between voter turnout and poll outcomes. Over the years, the data shows that incumbent governments have returned when the turnout has fallen, and incumbents have been ousted when the turnout has risen. Nevertheless, a detailed study on voter participation in the 2004, 2009, and 2014 general elections by prominent political observers concluded that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) consistently won in constituencies where the turnout had dropped.

In 2019, the BJP won 224 seats by receiving 50% or more votes. Most of these stronghold seats were in the North, some in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar despite the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party stitching together an improbable alliance. If the Opposition is to wrest power from the NDA it will have to spring surprises in these two states. Remember no government has ever captured power in Delhi without a presence in these two states. It should be noted that voters turnout was less in the United States too in the year 2020 which led to the defeat of Donald Trump.

The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) is the main political front that opposes Narendra Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) but the platform INDIA has not been yet able to determine a specific and unified candidate to stand against Narendra Modi. The INDIA alliance has blamed the BJP government for detaining opposition leaders without solid grounds or evidences and for downgrading communal harmony in India.

Narendra Modi is well-known for his features of leading a plain and modest life. He has no immediate family, no children. There are no corruption charges against him. These bright aspects about Narendra Modi’s profile lights up Narendra Modi’s political image and presents him to voters as an all the more acceptable figure to lead India in days to come and to establish India as a major regional power.

The INDIA alliance is suffering from some state-based factional disputes and reportedly the political parties in the INDIA alliance still could not overcome some of their conceptual dissimilarities. These internal rifts within the INDIA alliance drive forward Narendra Modi’s electoral prospects to a great extent.

Narendra Modi is on his way to another victory, most of the media outlets have asserted. Voters have already conferred their mandate. Only the official results and the announcement are still to be unveiled. I have reached this evaluation through interpretation of some latest media coverage on Indian polls. However, the ideologues that led to the establishment of BJP including Shyama Prasad Mukherjee were reportedly not evaluated which has caused some cracks of discontentment and frustration among BJP leaders and activists though there is no doubt that they will vote for BJP at the end of the day for sure.

The G20 summit hosted by India in New Delhi in September 2023 is a reflection of the fact that the acceptability of Narendra Modi’s government has become even stronger in the international arena.

I remember Narendra Modi’s visit to Bangladesh in 2015 for his inspiring speech which he delivered to the students and teachers of Dhaka University at an event organized in the Bangabandhu International Conference Center. In that speech, Narendra Modi spoke very high of the potentialities of Bangladesh’s youths, Bangladesh’s success stories on the socio-economic fronts, women empowerment, export industry etcetera with a promise to further strengthen the friendly ties between Bangladesh and India.

Narendra Modi visited Dhaka in March 2021 too for joining Bangladesh’s celebration of independence golden jubilee. All the patriotic think-tanks, politicians, academic scholars, foreign affairs experts and pro-liberation fronts welcomed Narendra Modi at that time though some radical and extremist groups carried out violent protests, burnt religious minorities’ houses and ransacked government offices while demonstrating against Narendra Modi’s participation in the above program.

These religious bigots have no idea about the roles played by BJP leaders Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Narendra Modi during the Liberation War of 1971 and their active participation during that period to face all odds to liberate Bangladesh. The newly elected Indian government will hopefully build up brotherly and harmonious relations with their neighbours and will enrich the culture and heritage of India.

While concluding, a few words of Mahatma Gandhi can be borrowed who once said, “All the religions of the world, while they may differ in other respects, unitedly proclaim that nothing lives in this world but truth.”

Shoeb Chowdhury is an author, poet, socio-economic analyst and Chairman, Editorial Board of The Asian Age.