India’s dilemma over Bangladesh’s next elections
Perceptions about India in Bangladesh are changing for a variety of reasons but mostly because of Bangladesh’s domestic politics and India’s way of conducting bilateral relations with it.
M Serajul Islam : INDIA provided shelter for 10 million Bangladeshis in 1971 which is one of the greatest humanitarian gestures in modern history. India’s assistance in Bangladesh’s war of liberation is a major reason the country succeeded in becoming independent in only nine months. Without India’s military intervention, it would have taken Bangladesh many years to achieve independence.
India’s military intervention in 1971 did not just shorten Bangladesh’s liberation war and its birth pang, it also saved thousands of lives that would have, otherwise, been lost. India also allowed Bangladesh’s government-in-exile on its soil. Its defence forces and Bangladeshi freedom fighters under a joint command defeated the Pakistan occupation forces and liberated Bangladesh on December 16, 1971. The victory ensured the people of Bangladesh an independent and sovereign nation based on ‘equality, social justice and human dignity.’
Bangladeshis across the country’s political divide acknowledge India’s humanitarian gesture and support for its liberation war with gratitude. They are sensitive about mentioning the benefits that have gone to India from Pakistan’s disintegration and the emergence of a friendly Bangladesh on its eastern frontier so as not to undermine its support in 1971.
India, nevertheless, benefited a great deal by supporting Bangladesh’s liberation. It saved, and continues to do so, mind-boggling sums in defence expenditures. Its eastern frontier is now defended by its paramilitary Border Security Force instead of the divisions of regular armed forces that it would have required if Pakistan had remained united.
Perceptions about India in Bangladesh are changing for a variety of reasons but mostly because of Bangladesh’s domestic politics and India’s way of conducting bilateral relations with it. The Awami League’s stranglehold on power for the past 14 years and India’s whole-hearted support for keeping it in power is one major reason, among many others that the Bangladeshis’ support for India for assisting Bangladesh in 1971 is fast disappearing. Those who oppose the Awami League on the issue of elections, for instance, have valid reasons to be critical of India, its contributions in 1971 notwithstanding.
The statement of the Bangladesh foreign minister AKA Momen to the media that he had requested India on an official visit to New Delhi in 2022 to do all it can to give prime minister Sheikh Hasina another term did not help India’s image in Bangladesh. The majority of Bangladeshis now oppose a fourth consecutive term for the Awami League through another controversial election.
Bangladesh’s friends in the west with which India was closely aligned during the 2014 and 2018 controversial elections have now parted ways with the Awami League. They are supporting a free, fair and participatory general election in Bangladesh in 2024. India’s silence over the election has convinced the BNP-led opposition where a third party does not exist that India does not favour a free, fair and participatory general election, perhaps because the Awami League would lose it.
India’s track record for a free and fair election in Bangladesh was irreparably damaged by its interference in Bangladesh’s 2014 election through its foreign secretary Sujata Singh’s visit to Dhaka a month before that election. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party boycotted the election on the demand of the caretaker government system that the Awami League had discarded. President Ershad with the Jatiya Party as the third party was sitting on the fence. The party could provide the 2014 election both legitimacy and credibility.
Sujata Singh arm-twisted president Ershad to participate in the 2014 general election. President Ershad spilled the beans to journalists that the Indian foreign secretary had forced him to do so. Unfortunately for India, the 2014 election was tarnished on claims of both credibility and legitimacy because there were no candidates in 154 of the 300 parliamentary seats against the Awami League and its allies.
These facts about India’s role in Bangladesh’s politics are now being revisited on social media and in private discussions as Bangladesh moves closer to its next general election. The ways for the Awami League to hold it like the 2014 and 2018 elections are fast closing. The Awami League’s zero-sum style of politics has united the opposition under the BNP’s leadership that the people outside the Awami League have joined on the twin factors of political oppression and extreme economic hardships.
New Delhi must, therefore, consider for its credibility that another election under the 15th amendment is now a non-starter because it has been exposed as the BAKSAL blueprint under which the Awami League would have no fear of losing the polls. The Awami League has left the BNP and the opposition no way to participate in a general election under the 15th amendment unless it wants to commit political hara-kiri.
India must also seriously think before backing the Awami League to hold another controversial general election because, meanwhile, the BNP’s movement on the streets is showing the potential of becoming a mass movement of people for their democratic, human and electoral rights. It does not need a crystal ball to predict that the Awami League’s attempt at holding another controversial election that the US-west and the United Nations would oppose would lead to dangerous civil disturbances and violence with devastating economic sanctions on Bangladesh that Sheikh Hasina fears.
India would have to shoulder a major part of the blame should Bangladesh face these disastrous consequences from its failure to hold the next general election peacefully. India, unfortunately, has other baggage as far as people of Bangladesh are concerned. The Awami League, at great political risks, gave away its transit and security concessions, Bangladesh’s only negotiating cards for securing its just share of the waters of the common rivers, on coming to power in January 2009.
India did not reciprocate. The Teesta deal has been waiting for an Indian signature for 12 years. India talks no more of water sharing. In frustration, Sheikh Hasina said in 2018, ‘India should remember forever what we have given to it.’ She was, no doubt, referring to Bangladesh’s support for the security of the Seven Sisters against secessionist acts and the grant of land transit from mainland India to its north-east. Bangladesh has, meanwhile, also permitted India to use the Chattogram and Mongla sea ports. It is now building the Matarbari deep seaport with Japanese investment that would be the game-changer for the Seven Sisters.
There is huge disappointment in Bangladesh for India’s failure to reciprocate. India’s goodwill in Bangladesh for 1971 is wearing thin, particularly outside the Awami League; India’s unwritten policy of placing the Awami League’s interests ahead of those of Bangladesh as was evident in the Sujata Singh case, for instance, is making India unpopular to the majority of Bangladeshis. India may have reasons apart from history to embrace the Awami League. The other political parties may have even tried to harm India’s security. But India cannot justify its unwritten policy of conducting its relations with Bangladesh by putting a party ahead of the country that is now an open secret.
India can, therefore, support the Awami League for a fourth consecutive term by denial about why Bangladeshis sacrificed so many lives for its liberation at a time when its ability to carry out its wishes in Bangladesh is not the same as it was leading to the 2014 election when the US-west-UN supported it to support the Awami League at any cost. India would have to go against its own beliefs in democracy and electoral rights to support the Awami League at a time when its acceptance in Bangladesh is low and declining for reasons already stated to which Hindutva is now contributing significantly.
Thus India is facing a serious dilemma over Bangladesh’s next general election. To deal with it, India should, first, reflect on 1971, second, place the interests of Bangladesh ahead of a political party and, finally, keep in perspective history, geopolitics and logic in conducting its bilateral relations with Bangladesh.
M Serajul Islam is a former career ambassador
